USDA lowers estimates for 2017-18 US ending corn stocks, rises for global

The US Department of Agriculture lowered its estimate for US ending corn stocks at the end of the 2017-18 marketing year to 2.437 billion bushels (61.903 million mt), down 50 million bushels from its November projection of 2.487 billion bushels

This would be 142 million bushels above its estimate for the 2016-2017 marketing year. Each marketing year starts September 1. The drop in US corn ending stocks was because USDA rose its estimates of corn used to produce ethanol to 5.525 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from its November projection.

The use of corn for ethanol production was raised based on increased sorghum export commitments, and the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, which estimated a lower-than-expected amount of sorghum used to produce ethanol during October, USDA said.

The department slightly increased its projection for global corn stocks at the end of the 2017-18 marketing year to 204.08 million mt, up 220,000 mt from its November projection. This would be 23.26 million mt below its estimate for the 2016-2017 marketing year.

“Foreign corn ending stocks are raised from last month, largely reflecting increases for China, the EU, and Brazil that more than offset declines for Egypt and Mexico,” USDA said.

USDA did not change its estimates for US corn production, still seen at 14.568 billion bushels, and for US corn exports, expected unchanged at 1.925 billion bushels (48.898 million mt).

The updated estimate foresees 38.14% of the current season’s crop going toward production of ethanol and byproducts, while 13.29% would be exported.

The agency unchanged its midpoint season average price for the 2017-2018 marketing year at $3.20/bushel, but it narrowed its range to $2.85-$3.55/bu.

Source: Platts